A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
